Unlike the see-saw figures on housing sales and house prices that come out monthly from the National Association of Realtors and the Census Bureau, the House Price Index (HPI) published quarterly by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) takes the longer view.
The HPI for the fourth quarter of 2006 was released on March 1, and while it clearly shows that the bubble is no longer expanding insanely, prices have stabilized and there is still modest appreciation. In fact, the appreciation, 1.1 percent over the three month period, was slightly better than the 1.0 percent growth in the third quarter.
Prices for the entire year (since the end of the fourth quarter, 2005) were up 5.9 percent. In quarter three the year-over-year appreciation (since Q3 2005) was 7.88 percent. Those two quarters followed eight straight quarters where the year-over-year increase was in double digits. Even at 5.9 percent housing prices still far outstripped the remainder of the Consumer Price Index in 2006 where non-shelter prices rose 0.9 percent.
Utah led the list in housing appreciation with a fourth quarter increase of 3.67 percent followed by Wyoming with 3.28 percent and New Mexico and Idaho, both at 2.14. These same states had one-year appreciation of 17.55, 14.29, 13.99, and 13.08 percent respectively. Negative appreciation for the quarter occurred in five states, Hawaii, North Dakota, California, Nevada, and Nebraska. In every case the decline was less than 1 percent. Only one state, Michigan, showed negative appreciation for the entire year.
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